Impacts of REDD plus payments on a coupled human-natural system in Amazonia
Authored by Thales A P West, Kelly A Grogan, Marilyn E Swisher, Jill L Caviglia-Harris, Erin O Sills, Dar A Roberts, Daniel Harris, Francis E Putz
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.08.008
Sponsors:
Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)
United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
ODD
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
We used a hybrid optimization-agent-based model to simulate REDD +
(Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in
combination with conservation, sustainable forest management, and
enhancement of forest carbon stocks) payment scenarios to farm
households in the old deforestation frontier of Rondonia, Brazil.
Payments varied from \$5 to \$30 per ton of net CO2 either not emitted
or removed from the atmosphere relative to a baseline scenario. The
impacts of REDD+ were assessed as changes in land use/cover, net CO2
emissions, program costs, community welfare, and agricultural
production. Our results suggest that interventions aimed at zero gross
deforestation would require unrealistically large annual disbursements.
In contrast, zero net carbon emissions can be achieved at approximately
two-thirds the cost with reduced impacts on food production. Overall,
simulated payments increased inequality among households, which
conflicts with desired REDD + outcomes. Results suggest that REDD +
might be more successful solely as a climate change mitigation mechanism
as opposed to a complex multi-objective development program.
Tags
Agent-based modeling
Ecosystem services
Exploration
Payments for environmental services
Forest conservation
land-cover change
frontier
Deforestation
Brazilian amazon
Costs
Carbon emissions
Land-use/cover change modeling
Natural resource economics
Avoided deforestation
Poverty
alleviation