An Agent-Based Model of Rural Households' Adaptation to Climate Change

Authored by Andrew T Crooks, Atesmachew Hailegiorgis, Claudio Cioffi-Revilla

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.18564/jasss.3812

Sponsors: United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) United States National Science Foundation (NSF)

Platforms: MASON GeoMason

Model Documentation: ODD Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: https://www.comses.net/codebases/5734/releases/1.1.0/

Abstract

Future climate change is expected to have greater impacts on societies whose livelihoods rely on subsistence agricultural systems. Adaptation is essential for mitigating adverse effects of climate change, to sustain rural livelihoods and ensure future food security. We present an agent-based model, called OMOLAND-CA, which explores the impact of climate change on the adaptive capacity of rural communities in the South Omo Zone of Ethiopia. The purpose of the model is to answer research questions on the resilience and adaptive capacity of rural households with respect to variations in climate, socioeconomic factors, and land-use at the local level. Our model explicitly represents the socio-cognitive behavior of rural households toward climate change and resource flows that prompt agents to diversify their production strategy under different climatic conditions. Results from the model show that successive episodes of extreme events (e.g., droughts) affect the adaptive capacity of households, causing them to migrate from the region. Nonetheless, rural communities in the South Omo Zone, and in the model, manage to endure in spite of such harsh climatic change conditions.

Tags

Simulation Agent-based modeling Dynamics vulnerability Land-use change Livestock systems Developing-countries Food security Adaptive capacity Pastoralists Climate change adaptation Socio-cognitive behavior