Bumble-BEEHAVE: A systems model for exploring multifactorial causes of bumblebee decline at individual, colony, population and community level
Authored by M A Becher, Grace Twiston-Davies, Tim D Penny, Dave Goulson, Ellen L Rotheray, Juliet L Osborne
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13165
Sponsors:
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
ODD
Flow charts
Model Code URLs:
https://besjournals-onlinelibrary-wiley-com.ezproxy1.lib.asu.edu/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2F1365-2664.13165&file=jpe13165-sup-0001-MODEL.nlogo
Abstract
1. World-wide declines in pollinators, including bumblebees, are
attributed to a multitude of stressors such as habitat loss, resource
availability, emerging viruses and parasites, exposure to pesticides,
and climate change, operating at various spatial and temporal scales.
Disentangling individual and interacting effects of these stressors, and
understanding their impact at the individual, colony and population
level are a challenge for systems ecology. Empirical testing of all
combinations and contexts is not feasible. A mechanistic multilevel
systems model (individual-colony-population-community) is required to
explore resilience mechanisms of populations and communities under
stress.
2. We present a model which can simulate the growth, behaviour and
survival of six UK bumblebee species living in any mapped landscape.
Bumble-BEEHAVE simulates, in an agent-based approach, the colony
development of bumblebees in a realistic landscape to study how multiple
stressors affect bee numbers and population dynamics. We provide
extensive documentation, including sensitivity analysis and validation,
based on data from literature. The model is freely available, has
flexible settings and includes a user manual to ensure it can be used
by-researchers, farmers, policy-makers, NGOs or other interested
parties.
3. Model outcomes compare well with empirical data for individual
foraging behaviour, colony growth and reproduction, and estimated nest
densities.
4. Simulating the impact of reproductive depression caused by pesticide
exposure shows that the complex feedback mechanisms captured in this
model predict higher colony resilience to stress than suggested by a
previous, simpler model.
5. Synthesis and applications. The Bumble-BEEHAVE model represents a
significant step towards predicting bumblebee population dynamics in a
spatially explicit way. It enables researchers to understand the
individual and interacting effects of the multiple stressors affecting
bumblebee survival and the feedback mechanisms that may buffer a colony
against environmental stress, or indeed lead to spiralling colony
collapse. The model can be used to aid the design of field experiments,
for risk assessments, to inform conservation and farming decisions and
for assigning bespoke management recommendations at a landscape scale.
Tags
Agent-based modelling
Dynamics
Land-use
Foraging
Pollination
growth
Habitats
Protocol
Bumblebees
Multiple stressors
Bombus-terrestris
Floral resources
Bombus terrestris
Colony decline
Cross-level interactions
Landscape-scale
Nest density
Pollinators