Modifying a simple agent-based model to disentangle the microstructure of Chinese and US stock markets

Authored by JingRu Ji, Donghua Wang, JingQing Tu

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2018.1460486

Sponsors: National Science Foundation China

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

We modify a simple agent-based model (ABM) proposed by Franke and Westerhoff [J. Econ. Dyn. Control, 2012, 36(8), 1193-1211] through considering the price limits and the motion of the fundamental value. The method of simulated moments is applied to calibrate both initial and modified ABMs with CSI 300 and S\&P 500 respectively, and the goodness-of-fit of each ABMs is tested. The calibration results indicate that the modified model performs better than initial one. Then, we utilize the GSL-div, proposed by Lamperti [Econometrics Stat, 2018, 5, 83-106.], to verify the explanatory power of ABMs. In this procedure, 13 ARCH family models are introduced as benchmarks. The result shows that the explanatory power of modified ABM exceeds ARCH models in both markets, while initial ABM may be defeated by some of the ARCH family models in explaining the microstructure of CSI 300. Finally, a heuristic algorithm is designed to disentangle the insights of Chinese and US stock markets to the observed time horizon through calibrating the initial fundamental value, and Kupiec test is used to check the robustness of the calibration. The result indicates that the explanation of modified model is robust in both markets, while initial model lost its robustness when explaining S\&P 500.

Tags

Agent-based model behavior Dynamics Validation Gsl-div Method of simulated moments Csi 300 S\&p 500