Exploring the Foreclosure Contagion Effect Using Agent-Based Modeling

Authored by Marshall Gangel, Michael J. Seiler, Andrew Collins

Date Published: 2013-02

DOI: 10.1007/s11146-011-9324-1

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: Repast

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Over the last several years, the United States has experienced a significant recession. During this downturn, the number of real estate foreclosures has risen drastically. Recent studies have demonstrated a reduction in property values due to neighboring foreclosures-known as the foreclosure contagion effect. This study uses an agent-based modeling approach to explore market-wide emergent behavior that results from the interconnected property-agent behavior. Specifically, we find that the magnitude of the foreclosure contagion effect is a less powerful cause of eventual market collapse than the time a foreclosed property is allowed to linger on the market. This is important because disposition time is much easier to address from a policymaker perspective than is the strength of the foreclosure contagion effect.

Tags

Agent-based modeling Disposition time Foreclosure contagion effect