Monetary policy and large crises in a financial accelerator agent-based model
Authored by Alberto Russo, Federico Giri, Luca Riccetti, Mauro Gallegati
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2018.04.007
Sponsors:
European Union
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
An accommodating monetary policy followed by a sudden increase of the
short term interest rate often leads to a bubble burst and to an
economic slowdown. Through the implementation of an Agent Based Model
with a financial accelerator mechanism we are able to study the
relationship between monetary policy and large-scale crisis events. A
two-step computational approach is proposed which performs (i) a pattern
search of double dip episodes and (ii) counter-factual simulations
implementing unconventional monetary policy. The main results can be
summarized as follow: a) sudden and sharp increases of the policy rate
can generate recessions; b) after a crisis, returning too soon and too
quickly to a normal monetary policy regime can generate a double dip
recession, while c) keeping the short term interest rate anchored to the
zero lower bound in the short run can successfully avoid a further
slowdown. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Tags
Agent based model
Financial accelerator
monetary policy
Credit
Cycle
Large crises
Zero lower bound