IDENTIFYING REQUIREMENTS FOR THE INVASION OF A TICK SPECIES AND TICK-BORNE PATHOGEN THROUGH TICKSIM

Authored by Holly Gaff, Robyn Nadolny

Date Published: 2013-06

DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.625

Sponsors: Mathematics and Research for Transformation (SMART) Office of Secretary Defense-Test and Evaluation National Defense Education Program (NDEP) United States Department of Defense (DoD) United States National Institutes of Health (NIH) United States Army

Platforms: NetLogo

Model Documentation: ODD Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Ticks and tick-borne diseases have been on the move throughout the United State over the past twenty years. We use an agent-based model, TICKSIM, to identify the key parameters that determine the success of invasion of the tick and if that is successful, the succees of the tick-borne pathogen. We find that if an area has competent hosts, an initial population of ten ticks is predicted to always establish a new population. The establishment of the tick-borne pathogen depends on three parameters: the initial prevalence in the ten founding ticks, the probability that a tick infects the longer-lived hosts and the probability that a tick infects the shorter lived hosts. These results indicate that the transmission rates to hosts in the newly established area can be used to predict the potential risk of disease to humans.

Tags

Agent-based model tick-borne disease