Analysis of Rooftop Photovoltaics Diffusion in Energy Community Buildings by a Novel GIS- and Agent-Based Modeling Co-Simulation Platform
Authored by Daniele Salvatore Schiera, Francesco Demetrio Minuto, Lorenzo Bottaccioli, Romano Borchiellini, Andrea Lanzini
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.1109/access.2019.2927446
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Abstract
The present work introduces an empirically ground agent-based modeling
(ABM) framework to assess the spatial and temporal diffusion of rooftop
photovoltaic (PV) systems on existing buildings of a city district. The
overall ABM framework takes into account social, technical,
environmental, and economic aspects to evaluate the diffusion of PV
technology in the urban context. A city district that includes 18 720
households distributed over 1 290 building blocks and a surface area of
2.47 km2 is used to test the proposed ABM framework. Results show how
the underlying regulatory framework (i.e., the rules of the internal
electricity market) influences the pattern and intensity of adoption,
thus realizing different shares of the available potential. Policies
that support the establishment of `prosumers' within Condominiums (i.e.,
energy community buildings), and not in single-family houses only, is
key to yield high diffusion rates. The installed capacity increases by
80\% by switching from the one-to-one configuration to the one-to-many
paradigm, i.e., from 5.90 MW of rooftop PV installed on single-family
households and/or single PV owners to 10.64 MW in energy community
buildings. Moreover, the possibility to spread the auto-generated solar
electricity over the load profile of the entire population of
Condominium results in self-consumption rates greater than 50\% and
self-sufficiency ratios above 20\% for the majority of the simulated
buildings.
Tags
Agent-based modeling
Complex adaptive systems
Dynamics
Public Policy
Innovation Diffusion
policy evaluation
Consumer Behavior
Technology adoption
systems
Urban areas
Sustainable development
Barriers
Distributed power generation
Energy technology diffusion
Geospatial
analysis
Photovoltaic systems
Pv
adoption