Estimating the impacts of financing support policies towards photovoltaic market in Indonesia: A social-energy-economy-environment model simulation
Authored by Irsyad Muhammad Indra Al, Anthony Halog, Rabindra Nepal
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.09.069
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Abstract
This study develops a hybrid energy agent-based model that integrates
the input-output analysis, environmental factors and socioeconomic
characteristics of rural and urban households in Indonesia. We use the
model to estimate the effects of four solar energy policy interventions
on photovoltaic (PV) investments, government expenditure, economic
outputs, CO2e emissions and the uses of steel, aluminium, concrete and
energy. The results of our analysis call for the abolition of the PV
donor gift policy, the improvement of production efficiency in the PV
industry and the establishment of after-sales services and rural
financing institutions. A 100 W peak (Wp) PV under this recommendation
would be affordable for 80.6\% of rural households that are projected to
be without access to electricity in 2029. Net metering is the most
effective policy for encouraging urban people to invest in PV in a
situation where fossil energy prices are increasing and PV prices are
declining. A donor gift policy may induce USD 51.9 new economic outputs
for every Wp of PV operating to capacity in 2029, but would require a
subsidy of USD 18.6/Wp. The recommended policies do not require
subsidies and reduce CO2eq emissions and the consumption of aluminium,
energy, steel and concrete by between 83.1\% and 89.7\% more than the
existing policy. Several policy implications are discussed in response
to these findings. As a contribution to energy modelling literature, the
model can be used for other developing countries by merely changing its
data.
Tags
Agent-based modelling
Adoption
Developing country
Power
renewable energy
Life-cycle assessment
Science
socioeconomic
System
Technologies
Input-output
analysis
Solar energy policy
Rural electrification
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