Allocating countermeasures to defend water distribution systems against terrorist attack

Authored by Emily Zechman Berglund, Jacob Monroe, Elizabeth Ramsey

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.02.014

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Water distribution networks are critical infrastructure systems that are vulnerable to terrorist attack. Water utility management has the goal of protecting public health by allocating countermeasures, including security equipment and personnel, as a first line of defense. A malevolent actor may select an attack location, however, using a set of unknown priorities that include performance and susceptibility criteria. This research develops a multi-agent framework to simulate the attack and defense of a distribution system to analyze security resource allocation strategies for protecting against chemical contamination events. A single period attacker-defender game is simulated, in which an attacker seeks to contaminate a system node with high attack utility, and a group of defenders seeks to minimize the public health impact from intentional attack. Terrorist agent decisions are simulated using a multi-attribute utility function, and multiple cases are constructed to simulate alternative rankings of criteria. The water utility manager agent assigns security personnel and deterrent security equipment to nodes using one of three security resource allocation strategies. The agent-based modeling framework is applied to simulate attack and defense for a virtual municipality, D-town. Strategies are evaluated based on the number of consumers exposed to a critical dose when a contaminant is released. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tags
Infrastructure Network Model Methodology Identification Threat Contamination event Water supply security Countermeasures Police officers Security equipment Physical infrastructure network Ranking