Predicting impacts of chemicals from organisms to ecosystem service delivery: A case study of endocrine disruptor effects on trout
Authored by Valery E Forbes, Steve Railsback, Chiara Accolla, Bjorn Birnir, Randall J F Bruins, Virginie Ducrot, Nika Galic, Kristina Garber, Bret C Harvey, I Henriette Jager, Andrew Kanarek, Robert Pastorok, Richard Rebarber, Pernille Thorbek, Chris J Salice
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.344
Sponsors:
United States Department of Energy (DOE)
United States National Science Foundation (NSF)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
We demonstrate how mechanistic modeling can be used to predict whether
and how biological responses to chemicals at (sub)organismal levels in
model species (i.e., what we typically measure) translate into impacts
on ecosystem service delivery (i.e., what we care about). We consider a
hypothetical case study of two species of trout, brown trout (Salmo
trutta; BT) and greenback cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii stomias;
GCT). These hypothetical populations live in a high-altitude river
system and are exposed to human-derived estrogen (17 alpha-ethinyl
estradiol, EE2), which is the bioactive estrogen in many contraceptives.
We use the individual-based model inSTREAM to explore how seasonally
varying concentrations of EE2 could influence male spawning and sperm
quality. Resulting impacts on trout recruitment and the consequences of
such for anglers and for the continued viability of populations of GCT
(the state fish of Colorado) are explored. inSTREAM incorporates
seasonally varying river flow and temperature, fishing pressure, the
influence of EE2 on species-specific demography, and inter-specific
competition. The model facilitates quantitative exploration of the
relative importance of endocrine disruption and inter-species
competition on trout population dynamics. Simulations predicted constant
EE2 loading to have more impacts on GCT than BT. However, increasing
removal of BT by anglers can enhance the persistence of GCT and offset
some of the negative effects of EE2. We demonstrate how models that
quantitatively link impacts of chemicals and other stressors on
individual survival, growth, and reproduction to consequences for
populations and ecosystem service delivery, can be coupled with
ecosystem service valuation. The approach facilitates interpretation of
toxicity data in an ecological context and gives beneficiaries of
ecosystem services a more explicit role in management decisions.
Although challenges remain, this type of approach may be particularly
helpful for site-specific risk assessments and those in which tradeoffs
and synergies among ecosystem services need to be considered. (C) 2018
Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Tags
Individual-based model
Ecosystem services
Ecological risk assessment
Pesticides
population
Valuation
exposure
ecological modeling
Framework
Level
Risk-assessment
Brown trout
Trout
Fegs
17-alpha-ethynylestradiol