Assessing the impact of alcohol taxation on rates of violent victimization in a large urban area: an agent-based modeling approach
Authored by Katherine M Keyes, Aaron Shev, Melissa Tracy, Magdalena Cerda
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.1111/add.14470
Sponsors:
No sponsors listed
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
ODD
Flow charts
Pseudocode
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Aims To use simulation to estimate the impact of alcohol taxation on
drinking, non-fatal violent victimization and homicide in New York City
(NYC). We simulate the heterogeneous effects of alcohol price
elasticities by income, level of consumption and beverage preferences,
and examine whether taxation can reduce income inequalities in
alcohol-related violence. Design Agent-based modeling simulation.
Setting NYC, USA. Participants Adult population aged 18-64 years in the
year 2000 in the 59 community districts of NYC. The population of 256
500 agents approximates a 5\% sample of the NYC population. Measurements
Agents were parameterized through a series of rules that governed
alcohol consumption and engagement in violence. Six taxation
interventions were implemented based on extensive reviews and
meta-analyses, increasing universal alcohol tax by 1, 5 and 10\%, and
beer tax by 1, 5 and 10\%. Findings Under no tax increase, approximately
12.2\% [95\% credible interval (prediction interval, PI) =
12.1-12.3\%] were heavy drinkers. Taxation decreased the proportion of
heavy drinkers; a 10\% tax decreased heavy drinking to 9.6\% (95\% PI =
9.4-9.8). Beer taxes had the strongest effect on population consumption.
Taxation influenced those in the lowest income groups more than the
highest income groups. Alcohol-related homicide decreased from 3.22 per
100 000 (95\% PI = 2.50-3.73) to 2.40 per 100 000 under a 10\% universal
tax (95\% PI = 1.92-2.94). This translates into an anticipated benefit
of similar to 1200 lives/year. Conclusion Reductions in alcohol
consumption in a large urban environment such as New York City can be
sustained with modest increases in universal taxation. Alcohol tax
increases also have a modest effect on alcohol-related violent
victimization. Taxation policies reduce income inequalities in
alcohol-related violence.
Tags
Agent-based modeling
Crime
tax
networks
Violence
Complex system
Price elasticity
Consumption
Dependence
Metaanalysis
Posttraumatic-stress
Drinking
Alcohol
Taxation
Disorder
Homicide
Taxes
Violent victimization