Assessing the impact of alcohol taxation on rates of violent victimization in a large urban area: an agent-based modeling approach

Authored by Katherine M Keyes, Aaron Shev, Melissa Tracy, Magdalena Cerda

Date Published: 2019

DOI: 10.1111/add.14470

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: ODD Flow charts Pseudocode Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Aims To use simulation to estimate the impact of alcohol taxation on drinking, non-fatal violent victimization and homicide in New York City (NYC). We simulate the heterogeneous effects of alcohol price elasticities by income, level of consumption and beverage preferences, and examine whether taxation can reduce income inequalities in alcohol-related violence. Design Agent-based modeling simulation. Setting NYC, USA. Participants Adult population aged 18-64 years in the year 2000 in the 59 community districts of NYC. The population of 256 500 agents approximates a 5\% sample of the NYC population. Measurements Agents were parameterized through a series of rules that governed alcohol consumption and engagement in violence. Six taxation interventions were implemented based on extensive reviews and meta-analyses, increasing universal alcohol tax by 1, 5 and 10\%, and beer tax by 1, 5 and 10\%. Findings Under no tax increase, approximately 12.2\% [95\% credible interval (prediction interval, PI) = 12.1-12.3\%] were heavy drinkers. Taxation decreased the proportion of heavy drinkers; a 10\% tax decreased heavy drinking to 9.6\% (95\% PI = 9.4-9.8). Beer taxes had the strongest effect on population consumption. Taxation influenced those in the lowest income groups more than the highest income groups. Alcohol-related homicide decreased from 3.22 per 100 000 (95\% PI = 2.50-3.73) to 2.40 per 100 000 under a 10\% universal tax (95\% PI = 1.92-2.94). This translates into an anticipated benefit of similar to 1200 lives/year. Conclusion Reductions in alcohol consumption in a large urban environment such as New York City can be sustained with modest increases in universal taxation. Alcohol tax increases also have a modest effect on alcohol-related violent victimization. Taxation policies reduce income inequalities in alcohol-related violence.
Tags
Agent-based modeling Crime tax networks Violence Complex system Price elasticity Consumption Dependence Metaanalysis Posttraumatic-stress Drinking Alcohol Taxation Disorder Homicide Taxes Violent victimization