Predicting the performance of cosmopolitan species: dynamic energy budget model skill drops across large spatial scales
Authored by Cristian J Monaco, Erika M D Porporato, Justin A Lathlean, Morgana Tagliarolo, Gianluca Sara, Christopher D McQuaid
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.1007/s00227-018-3462-4
Sponsors:
South African National Research Foundation (NRF)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Individual-based models are increasingly used by marine ecologists to
predict species responses to environmental change on a mechanistic
basis. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models allow the simulation of
physiological processes (maintenance, growth, reproduction) in response
to variability in environmental drivers. High levels of computational
capacity and remote-sensing technologies provide an opportunity to apply
existing DEB models across global spatial scales. To do so, however, we
must first test the assumption of stationarity, i.e., that parameter
values estimated for populations in one location/time are valid for
populations elsewhere. Using a validated DEB model parameterized for the
cosmopolitan intertidal mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, we ran growth
simulations for native, Mediterranean Sea, populations and non-native,
South African populations. The model performed well for native
populations, but overestimated growth for non-native ones.
Overestimations suggest that: (1) unaccounted variables may keep the
physiological performance of non-native M. galloprovincialis in check,
and/or (2) phenotypic plasticity or local adaptation could modulate
responses under different environmental conditions. The study shows that
stationary mechanistic models that aim to describe dynamics in complex
physiological processes should be treated carefully when implemented
across large spatial scales. Instead, we suggest placing the necessary
effort into identifying the nuances that result in non-stationarity and
explicitly accounting for them in geographic-scale mechanistic models.
Tags
growth
Climate-change
Temperature
Mytilus-edulis
Thermal-stress
Local
adaptation
Perna-perna
Attachment strength
Wave exposure
Blue mussel