Exploring sustainable land use in forested tropical social-ecological systems: A case-study in the Wet Tropics
Authored by Julen Gonzalez-Redin, Rosemary Hill, Iain J Gordon, J Gary Polhill, Terence P Dawson
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.10.079
Sponsors:
No sponsors listed
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
UML
ODD
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Tropical countries lie at the nexus of three pressing issues for global
sustainability: agricultural production, climate change mitigation and
biodiversity conservation. The forces that drive forest protection do
not necessarily oppose those that drive forest clearance for
development. This decoupling, enhanced by the stronger economic forces
compared to conservation, is detrimental for the social-ecological
sustainability of forested tropical landscapes. This paper presents an
integrated, and spatially-explicit, Agent-Based Model that examines the
future impacts of land-use change scenarios on the sustainability of the
Wet Tropics region of tropical Queensland, Australia. In particular, the
model integrates Bayesian Belief Networks, Geographical Information
Systems, empirical data and expert knowledge, under a
land-sharing/land-sparing analysis, to study the impact of different
landscape configurations on trade-offs and synergies among biodiversity
and two ecosystem services (sugarcane production and carbon
sequestration). Contrary to most tropical regions, model simulations
show that Business As Usual is helping to reconcile these contrasting
goals in the forested landscape of the Wet Tropics. The paper analyses
which combination of governance and socio-economic factors is causing
these positive results. This is an outstanding achievement for a
tropical region, considering that most tropical areas are characterized
for having stronger economic-land clearing forces compared to
conservation forces, which reduce important ecosystem services for human
wellbeing and the health of ecosystems.
Tags
Agent-based model
models
governance
Social-Ecological System
Ecosystem services
Biodiversity conservation
Australia
Science
Lessons
Bayesian networks
Sustainable land use
Land-sharing and
land-sparing
Bayesian belief
network