A Dynamic Sustainability Analysis of Energy Landscapes in Egypt: A Spatial Agent-Based Model Combined with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
Authored by Mostafa Shaaban, Juergen Scheffran, Juergen Boehner, Mohamed S Elsobki
Date Published: 2019
DOI: 10.18564/jasss.3906
Sponsors:
German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG)
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Model Documentation:
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Abstract
To respond to the emerging challenge of climate change, feasible
strategies need to be formulated towards sustainable development and
energy security on a national and international level. Lacking a dynamic
sustainability assessment of technologies for electricity planning, this
paper fills the gap with a multi-criteria and multi-stakeholder
evaluation in an integrated assessment of energy systems. This allows to
select the most preferred strategies for future planning of energy
security in Egypt, with a focus on alternative energy pathways and a
sustainable electricity supply mix up to 2100. A novel prototype model
is used to integrate multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) as a
premium decision support approach with agent-based modeling (ABM). This
tool is popular in analyzing dynamic complex systems. A GIS-based
spatial ABM analyzes future pathways for energy security in Egypt,
depending on the preferences of agents for selected criteria to
facilitate the transformation of energy landscapes. The study reveals
significant temporal variations in the spatial ranking of technologies
between actors in the energy sector over this period. We conclude that
in order to attain a sustainable energy landscape, we should involve
relevant stakeholders and analyze their interactions while considering
local spatial conditions and key dimensions of sustainable development.
Tags
Agent-based modeling
Energy security
Geographic information system
Energy landscape
Egypt
Multi-criteria decision
analysis