Dynamical network models for cattle trade: towards economy-based epidemic risk assessment
Authored by Patrick Hoscheit, Sebastien Geeraert, Gael Beaunee, Herve Monod, Christopher A Gilligan, Joao A N Filipe, Elisabeta Vergu, Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1093/comnet/cnw026
Sponsors:
French National Research Agency (ANR)
French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA)
French Ministries
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
We present a simple and efficient microeconomic model incorporating
generic components for trade of cattle at the level of agricultural
holdings, using supply-and-demand processes as a basis for animal
movements. By combining within-node dynamics of stocks with stochastic
jumps describing animal exchanges between nodes, our model reproduces
the dynamical network of animal trade between holdings. Variants of the
model, either closely calibrated on the data, or based on mechanistic
economical assumptions, are considered. In addition to mathematical
investigation of the average dynamical behaviour, model performances are
assessed on three datasets (including or not intermediary trade
operators such as marketplaces and assembly centres), covering 5 years
of cattle movement in the departement of Finistere (France), as a case
study. Model outputs are compared with data regarding the average size
of traded batches per holding and the length of temporal trade chains
with the potential to transmit disease across the market. We observe an
overall good agreement with the data, with variations between models,
depending on the criteria (aggregated or time-varying) and datasets
considered. These findings highlight the impact of high-volume nodes
such as markets and assembly centres on trade flows, as well as the
importance of correctly reproducing temporal features of dynamical trade
networks. Our study represents one of the first attempts of building
dynamical models of livestock trade networks, incorporating simple
economic mechanisms, proving to be useful for analysing and predicting
cattle trade movements. Future work in this direction might lead to a
more detailed analysis of the subnetworks (e.g. beef, dairy) of this
complex market, as well as a better understanding of the economic
drivers underlying cattle movement, allowing the improvement of
predictions of its temporal features, especially in the context of
outbreaks.
Tags
movements
patterns
Influenza
random networks
Surveillance
System
Great-britain
Temporal networks
Empirical-evidence
Individual-based
model
Ontario
Disease spread
Dairy-cattle
Cattle trade
Supply-and-demand