Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use
Authored by Hang Xiong, Steve Peterson, Jeremy Woods
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.3390/land6030056
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Abstract
The telecoupling framework is an integrated concept that emphasises
socioeconomic and environmental interactions between distant places.
Viewed through the lens of the telecoupling framework, land use and food
consumption are linked across local to global scales by decision-making
agents and trade flows. Quantitatively modelling the dynamics of
telecoupled systems like this could be achieved using numerous different
modelling approaches. For example, previous approaches to modelling
global food trade have often used partial equilibrium economic models,
whereas recent approaches to representing local land use decision-making
have widely used agent-based modelling. System dynamics models are well
established for representing aggregated flows and stores of products and
values between distant locations. We argue that hybrid computational
models will be useful for capitalising on the strengths these different
modelling approaches each have for representing the various concepts in
the telecoupling framework. However, integrating multiple modelling
approaches into hybrid models faces challenges, including data
requirements and uncertainty assessment. To help guide the development
of hybrid models for investigating sustainability through the
telecoupling framework here we examine important representational and
modelling considerations in the context of global food trade and local
land use. We report on the development of our own model that
incorporates multiple modelling approaches in a modular approach to
negotiate the trade-offs between ideal representation and modelling
resource constraints. In this initial modelling our focus is on land use
and food trade in and between USA, China and Brazil, but also accounting
for the rest of the world. We discuss the challenges of integrating
multiple modelling approaches to enable analysis of agents, flows, and
feedbacks in the telecoupled system. Our analysis indicates differences
in representation of agency are possible and should be expected in
integrated models. Questions about telecoupling dynamics should be the
primary driver in selecting modelling approaches, tempered by resource
availability. There is also a need to identify appropriate modelling
assessment and analysis tools and learn from their application in other
domains.
Tags
Simulation
Agent-based models
System dynamics
Uncertainty
Management
modelling
environment
Land use
security
Framework
Challenges
Impact
Food
Telecoupling