Hybrid Simulation Model for the Upstream Rubber Supply Chain
Authored by Chawalit Manisri, Juta Pichitlamken
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.7232/iems.2017.16.3.330
Sponsors:
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Platforms:
AnyLogic
Model Documentation:
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Abstract
Thailand has been one of the largest natural rubber (NR) exporters in
the world since 1991. However, the upstream rubber supply chain suffers
from problems such as oversupply and decreasing price. This work
proposed a decision-support model that combines System Dynamics and
Agent-Based Modeling simulation while taking into account the
relationship between NR price and planting rate per year, as well as
between NR price and crude oil price. The input data between 2002 and
2015 included area sizes, tapping yield, planting rates, growth rates,
and time to start or end tapping. The upstream rubber supply chain
models were simulated from 2002 to 2021. The hybrid models in this study
were validated by comparing between the simulated NR volume and actual
values. The average Mean Absolute Percentage Error was 8.6\%. The
results of this work may be used by stakeholders in NR supply chains,
such as in government agencies, to support their policy making.
Tags
Agent-based modeling
System dynamics
Decision support system
Natural rubber supply chain
Natural rubber