Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape

Authored by Peter H. Verburg, Derek B. Van Berkel

Date Published: 2012-05

DOI: 10.1007/s10980-012-9730-7

Sponsors: European Union Dutch Climate for Knowledge

Platforms: NetLogo

Model Documentation: ODD Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders' solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.

Tags

Agent-based models Rural development Ecosystem services Forecasting Backcasting Landscape evolution Multifunctional landscape