Contagion in the Transpacific Shipping Network: International Networks and Vulnerability Interdependence

Authored by David C. Earnest, Steve Yetiv, Stephen M. Carmel

Date Published: 2012

DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2012.726151

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: NetLogo

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Pseudocode Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

To what extent are states vulnerable to disruptions in trade networks? We investigate this question by simulating attacks on the intermodal shipping network, whose ubiquitous containers carry 80% to 90% of all global trade in goods. While this network has reduced transportation costs and spurred international trade, the dependence of modern economies on ship-borne trade means disruptions in one region may produce considerable costs for states in another region. We simulate an “optimal terrorist” that learns about the conditions under which attacks on the network in other parts of the world generate economic losses to the United States. The study illustrates that by adopting a network- and process-oriented ontology, the study of interdependence may better anticipate new sources of interstate and transnational conflict.

Tags

Agent-based modeling Complex systems networks interdependence