Influence of sea level rise on discounting, resource use and migration in small-island communities: an agent-based modelling approach
Authored by Adam Douglas Henry, Andreas Egelund Christensen, Rebecca Hofmann, Ivo Steimanis, Bjoern Vollan
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1017/s0376892917000339
Sponsors:
Robert Bosch Foundation
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Mathematical description
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Time discounting - the degree to which individuals value current more
than future resources - is an important component of natural resource
conservation. As a response to climate change impacts in island
communities, such as sea level rise, discounting the future can be a
rational response due to increased stress on natural resources and
uncertainty about whether future generations will have the same access
to the same resources. By incorporating systematic responses of discount
rates into models of resource conservation, realistic expectations of
future human responses to climate change and associated resource stress
may be developed. This paper illustrates the importance of time
discounting through a theoretical agent-based model of resource use in
island communities. A discount rate change can dramatically change
projections about future migration and community-based conservation
efforts. Our simulation results show that an increase in discount rates
due to a credible information shock about future climate change impacts
is likely to speed resource depletion. The negative impacts of climate
change are therefore likely to be underestimated if changes in discount
rates and emerging migration patterns are not taken into account.
Tags
Climate change
Migration
behavior
Institutions
Conservation
Common-Pool Resources
Livelihoods
Children
Climate-change
Future
Solomon-islands
Small
islands
Time discounting
Ontong java
Time-preferences
Self-control