A Synthetic Population for Modelling the Dynamics of Infectious Disease Transmission in American Samoa
Authored by Zhijing Xu, Nicholas Geard, Kathryn Glass, Colleen L Lau, Patricia Graves, Archie Clements
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-17093-8
Sponsors:
Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Agent-based modelling is a useful approach for capturing heterogeneity
in disease transmission. In this study, a synthetic population was
developed for American Samoa using an iterative approach based on
population census, questionnaire survey and land use data. The
population will be used as the basis for a new agent-based model,
intended specifically to fill the knowledge gaps about lymphatic
filariasis transmission and elimination, but also to be readily
adaptable to model other infectious diseases. The synthetic population
was characterized by the statistically realistic population and
household structure, and high-resolution geographic locations of
households. The population was simulated over 40 years from 2010 to
2050. The simulated population was compared to estimates and projections
of the U.S. Census Bureau. The results showed the total population would
continuously decrease due to the observed large number of emigrants.
Population ageing was observed, which was consistent with the latest two
population censuses and the Bureau's projections. The sex ratios by age
groups were analysed and indicated an increase in the proportion of
males in age groups 0-14 and 15-64. The household size followed a
Gaussian distribution with an average size of around 5.0 throughout the
simulation, slightly less than the initial average size 5.6.
Tags
Simulation
Social networks
Influenza
outbreak
Epidemic
Culicidae
Program
Impact
Lymphatic filariasis