EXPLORATION OF THE PARAMETER SPACE IN AN AGENT-BASED MODEL OF TUBERCULOSIS SPREAD: EMERGENCE OF DRUG RESISTANCE IN DEVELOPING VS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Authored by Chris T Bauch, Aquino L. Espindola, Daniel Girardi, Thadeu J. P. Penna, Alexandre S. Martinez, Brenno C. T. Cabella

Date Published: 2012-06

DOI: 10.1142/s0129183112500465

Sponsors: National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Canadian Institutes for Health Research Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) National Institute of Science and Technology for Complex System


Brazil

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

In this work we present an agent-based model for the spread of tuberculosis where the individuals can be infected with either drug-susceptible or drug-resistant strains and can also receive a treatment. The dynamics of the model and the role of each one of the parameters are explained. The whole set of parameters is explored to check their importance in the numerical simulation results. The model captures the beneficial impact of the adequate treatment on the prevalence of tuberculosis. Nevertheless, depending on the treatment parameters range, it also captures the emergence of drug resistance. Drug resistance emergence is particularly likely to occur for parameter values corresponding to less efficacious treatment, as usually found in developing countries.

Tags

Cellular automata tuberculosis Computational epidemiology stochastic models