Use of an agent-based model and Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the effectiveness of emergency management interventions to reduce loss of life during extreme floods
Authored by D Lumbroso, M Davison
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12230
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Abstract
This paper describes the use of an agent-based model, known as the Life
Safety Model (LSM) and a Monte Carlo analysis to assess the
effectiveness of emergency management interventions in terms of loss of
life, taking into account uncertainties in the physical characteristics
of the population at risk, represented by people's height and mass. The
work considered Canvey Island as a case study, which is located in the
Thames Estuary. The average ground level of the island is 1 m below the
mean high tide level. Canvey Island is protected against inundation by a
series of flood defences. In 1953, the island was inundated by the Great
North Sea Flood that breached the defences and led to the deaths of 58
people. A number of emergency management interventions (e.g. safe havens
and flood warnings) were considered to ascertain if the loss of life in
1953 could have been reduced. The LSM was found to be an effective tool
to compare different emergency management measures to ensure that loss
of life is minimised when an extreme flood event occurs.
Tags
Agent-based model
Emergency Management
Gravity
Floods
Loss of life
Monte
carlo analysis