Cause-of-death mortality: What can be learned from population dynamics?

Authored by Alexandre Boumezoued, Heloise Labit Hardy, Karoui Nicole El, Severine Arnold

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.09.015

Sponsors: French National Research Agency (ANR)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

This paper analyses cause-of-death mortality changes and its impacts on the whole population evolution. The study combines cause-of-death analysis and population dynamics techniques. Our aim is to measure the impact of cause-of-death reduction on the whole population age structure, and more specifically on the dependency ratio which is a crucial quantity for pay-as-you-go pension systems. Although previous studies on causes of death focused on mortality indicators such as survival curves or life expectancy, our approach provides additional information by including birth patterns. As an important conclusion, our numerical results based on French data show that populations with identical life expectancies can present important differences in their age pyramid resulting from different cause-specific mortality reductions. Sensitivities to fertility level and population flows are also given. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tags

Individual-based model Population dynamics models Impact Cause-of-death mortality Birth and death process Age pyramid Age dependency ratio Macroscopic behavior Competing risks Cause-elimination Marriage squeeze