Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal
Authored by Genevieve Lacroix, Leo Barbut, Filip A M Volckaert
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13915
Sponsors:
Flanders Research Foundation
Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO)
Platforms:
R
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also
affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery
grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and
shaped by (a) biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important
to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in
wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a
particle-tracking model coupled to a 3D-hydrodynamic model of the
English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the
exploited flatfish (common) sole (Solea solea). We first assess model
robustness and interannual variability in larval transport over the
period 1995-2011. Then, using a subset of representative years
(2003-2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval
dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds.
The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared
with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33\% of the
year-to-year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale
and that a 9-year period is sufficient to capture interannual
variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a
temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model
predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70\%) and pelagic larval duration
(+ 22\%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (similar
to 9\%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at
the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36\%) and decrease in
others (similar to 58\%) and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting
changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts
considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9\%) and connectivity
(retention similar to 4\% and seeding +37\%) due to global change. All
of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and
therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries
management.
Tags
Individual-based model
Climate change
connectivity
Marine protected areas
global change
Recruitment
Climate-change
Larval dispersal
Southern north-sea
Sole solea-solea
Transport model
Common sole
Egg size
North sea
Eastern english channel
Prospective
scenarios
Solea solea
Reef fish
larvae
Local replenishment
0-group
sole