Gravity of Terror: A Computational Model

Authored by Giti Zahedzadeh

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.1080/19361610.2018.1422361

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: NetLogo

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Can offensive counterterror campaigns generate support for terror groups? Herein, we present a computational model of offensive counterterror motivated terrorism. Nonlinear adaptive interactions are captured by simulations and derived from a modified Newtonian law of gravity. Two variants of the model are presented. In the first, offensive counterterror efforts are lax and while more agents become vulnerable to recruitment, the number of terrorists is in decline. The second variant illustrates that severe offensive counterterror measures succeed in reducing the number of those who are vulnerable but inflate the number of terrorists. Thus, pressure emanating from offensive counterterror can encourage recruitment.

Tags

Agent-based model Agent-based models Intelligence Violence conflict Deterrence systems computational model Terrorism Recruitment Impact Support Offensive counterterrorism Backlash Counterterrorism