Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Assessment of the Impacts of Landscape Complexity and Climate on Dispersion, Detectability and Fate of Incipient Medfly Populations
Authored by Slawomir A Lux
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2017.01121
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Abstract
The objective of the presented study was to demonstrate the potential of
a bottom-up ``ethological{''} approach and individual-based model of
Markov-like stochastic processes, employed to gain insights into the
factors driving behavior and fate of the invasive propagule, which
determine the initial stages of pest invasion and ``cryptic{''}
existence of the localized, ultra-low density incipient pest
populations. The applied model, PESTonFARM, is driven by the parameters
derived directly from the behavior and biology of the target insect
species, and spatiotemporal traits of the local terrain and climate. The
model projections are actively generated by behavior of the primary
causative actors of the invasion processes-individual ``virtual{''}
insects-members of the initial propagules or incipient populations.
Algorithms of the model were adjusted to reflect behavior and ecology of
the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata, used as a case-example
in the presented study. The model was parametrized based on compiled
published experimental information about C. capitata behavior and
development, and validated using published data from dispersion and
trapping studies. The model reliably simulated behavior, development and
dispersion of individual members of an invasive cohort, and allowed to
quantify pest establishment and detection chances in landscapes of
varying spatiotemporal complexity, host availability and climates. The
results support the common view that, under optimal conditions (farmland
with continuous fruit availability and suitable climate), even a single
propagule of medium size (100 females) usually results in pest
establishment and detection within the first year post-invasion. The
results demonstrate, however, that under specific sub-optimal conditions
determined by the local climate, weather fluctuations and landscape
topography (e.g., sub-urban), the incipient cryptic populations may
occasionally continue for several generations, and remain undetected by
typical pest surveillance grids for the periods extending beyond 2-years
post-invasion.
Tags
Agent-based model
sterile insect technique
Cellular-automata
Food sources
Incipient populations
Invasive propagule
Trapping
Pest detection
Ceratitis capitata
Fruit-flies diptera
Ceratitis-capitata diptera
Tephritid pest
populations
5 constant temperatures
Long-range dispersal
C-fasciventris
Spp. diptera