Forecasting Changes in Religiosity and Existential Security with an Agent-based Model

Authored by Carlos Lemos, Ross J Gore, F LeRon Shults, Wesley Wildman

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.18564/jasss.3596

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals overtime. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) and the Human Development Report (HDR). We conduct an evaluation that demonstrates, for the countries and time periods studied, that our model provides a more accurate forecast of changes in existential security and religiosity than two alternative approaches. The improved accuracy is largely due to the inclusion of social networks with educational homophily which alters the way in which religiosity and existential security change in the model. These dynamics grow societies where two individuals with the same initial religious practices (or belief In God, or supernatural beliefs) evolve differently based on the educational backgrounds of the individuals with which they surround themselves. Finally, we discuss the limitations of our model and provide direction for future work.

Tags

Agent-based model Social networks Social influence Evolution Culture Education Social Network Religion data based modeling belief Public-opinion Brain Individual-differences Explanations God