Indonesia's forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES)
Authored by Desi Suyamto, Noordwijk Meine van, Aritta Suwarno, Hans-Peter Weikard
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-016-9721-0
Sponsors:
European Research Council (ERC)
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Flow charts
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
The Indonesian government recently confirmed its Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions (INDCs) to mitigate global climate change. A
forest moratorium policy that protects forest and peatland is a
significant part of the INDCs; however, its effectiveness is unclear in
the face of complex land-use and land-cover change. This study aims to
assess the dynamics of land-use change and ecosystem service supply as a
function of local decision-making. We developed an agent-based model,
Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES), and used it to explore
the possible effects of the forest moratorium policy on the land-use
decisions of private companies and communities. Our simulations for two
districts in Central Kalimantan show that the current implementation of
the forest moratorium policy is not effective in reducing forest
conversion and carbon emissions. This is because companies continue to
invest in converting secondary forest on mineral soils and the
moratorium does not affect community decision-making. A policy that
combines a forest moratorium with livelihood support and increases
farm-gate prices of forest and agroforestry products could increase the
local communities' benefits from conservation. Forest and agroforestry
areas that are profitable and competitive are more likely to be
conserved and reduce potential carbon emission by about 36 \%. The
results for the two districts, with different pressures on local
resources, suggest that appropriate additional measures require local
fine-tuning. The LUCES model could be an ex ante tool to facilitate such
fine-tuning and help the Indonesian government achieve its INDC goals as
part of a wider sustainable development policy.
Tags
Agent-based model
Households
Land-use change
Decision-Making
Validation
Biodiversity conservation
Landscapes
Trade-offs
Carbon emissions
Central kalimantan
Climate mitigation
Private
companies
Fallow model
Carbon stocks
Redd plus
Concessions
Peatlands