Simulating the Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Warning Labels in Three Cities
Authored by Bruce Y Lee, Shawn T Brown, Marie C Ferguson, Daniel L Hertenstein, Atif Adam, Eli Zenkov, Peggy I Wang, Michelle S Wong, Joel Gittelsohn, Yeeli Mui
Date Published: 2018
DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2017.11.003
Sponsors:
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD)
Global Obesity Prevention Center
Platforms:
Python
Virtual Population for Obesity Prevention (VPOP)
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Flow charts
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Introduction: A number of locations have been considering
sugar-sweetened beverage point-of-purchase warning label policies to
help address rising adolescent overweight and obesity prevalence.
Methods: To explore the impact of such policies, in 2016 detailed
agent-based models of Baltimore, Philadelphia, and San Francisco were
developed, representing their populations, school locations, and food
sources, using data from various sources collected between 2005 and
2014. The model simulated, over a 7-year period, the mean change in BMI
and obesity prevalence in each of the cities from sugar-sweetened
beverage warning label policies.
Results: Data analysis conducted between 2016 and 2017 found that
implementing sugar-sweetened beverage warning labels at all
sugar-sweetened beverage retailers lowered obesity prevalence among
adolescents in all three cities. Point-of-purchase labels with 8\%
efficacy (i.e., labels reducing probability of sugar-sweetened beverage
consumption by 8\%) resulted in the following percentage changes in
obesity prevalence: Baltimore: -1.69\% (95\% CI = -2.75\%, -0.97\%, p <
0.001); San Francisco: -4.08\% (95\% CI = -5.96\%, -2.2\%, p < 0.001);
Philadelphia: -2.17\% (95\% CI = -3.07\%, -1.42\%, p < 0.001).
Conclusions: Agent-based simulations showed how warning labels may
decrease overweight and obesity prevalence in a variety of circumstances
with label efficacy and literacy rate identified as potential drivers.
Implementing a warning label policy may lead to a reduction in obesity
prevalence. Focusing on warning label design and store compliance,
especially at supermarkets, may further increase the health impact.
Tags
Obesity
health
Strategies
United-states
Consumption
Caloric information
Black-adolescents
Childhood
Purchases
Tobacco