An agent-based model of farmer behaviour to explain the limited adaptability of Flemish agriculture

Authored by Dries Maes, Passel Steven Van

Date Published: 2017

DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2016.06.001

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: MATLAB

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Transition projects have been implemented for Flemish agriculture since 2003, but these did not enable a transformation of the agricultural sector. This paper looks at pre-transition scenarios that have been collectively designed by stakeholders of the agricultural sector in 2002. These foresaw decreases in the regional animal stocks in Flanders. However, the real evolution of the sector did not reveal such a decrease. It is assumed that the individual adaptive behaviour of farmers can explain the unexpected stability of the Flemish agricultural sector. A detailed agent-based model has been built to replicate the past evolution, accounting for structural diversity of farmers, heterogeneity in behaviour, and natural resource constraints. The results indicate that different forms of rigidity in the individual behaviour of farmers slow down the adaptation of the agricultural sector. Future transition scenarios should account for these elements in order not to overestimate the speed of change in the sector. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tags

Agent-based model Adaptation Evolution Management Innovation Sustainability Economics history-friendly model Industry Structural-change Use efficiency Behavioural diversity Agricultural transition Specialized dairy