The Interaction of Risk Network Structures and Virus Natural History in the Non-spreading of HIV Among People Who Inject Drugs in the Early Stages of the Epidemic

Authored by Bilal Khan, Kirk Dombrowski, Mohamed Saad, Samuel R Friedman, Patrick Habecker, Holly Hagan

Date Published: 2017

DOI: 10.1007/s10461-016-1568-6

Sponsors: United States National Institutes of Health (NIH) United States National Science Foundation (NSF)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

This article explores how social network dynamics may have reduced the spread of HIV-1 infection among people who inject drugs during the early years of the epidemic. Stochastic, discrete event, agent-based simulations are used to test whether a ``firewall effect{''} can arise out of self-organizing processes at the actor level, and whether such an effect can account for stable HIV prevalence rates below population saturation. Repeated simulation experiments show that, in the presence of recurring, acute, and highly infectious outbreaks, micro-network structures combine with the HIV virus's natural history to reduce the spread of the disease. These results indicate that network factors likely played a significant role in the prevention of HIV infection within injection risk networks during periods of peak prevalence. They also suggest that social forces that disturb network connections may diminish the natural firewall effect and result in higher rates of HIV.

Tags

Agent-based model Simulation Social networks self-organization Infection transmission Prevention New-york-city Users Seroprevalence Risk networks Pwid Firewall effect