Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen
Authored by Stefano Merler, Piero Poletti, Giorgio Guzzetta, Valentina Tagliapietra, Sarah E Perkins, Heidi C Hauffe, Annapaola Rizzoli
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12653
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Abstract
Stochastic processes play an important role in the infectious disease
dynamics of wildlife, especially in species subject to large population
oscillations. Here, we study the case of a free ranging population of
yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis) in northern Italy, where
circulation of Dobrava-Belgrade hantavirus (DOBV) has been detected
intermittently since 2001, until an outbreak emerged in 2010. We
analysed the transmission dynamics of the recent outbreak using a
computational model that accounts for seasonal changes of the host
population and territorial behaviour. Model parameters were informed by
capture-mark-recapture data collected over 14years and longitudinal
seroprevalence data from 2010 to 2013. The intermittent observation of
DOBV before 2010 can be interpreted as repeated stochastic fadeouts
after multiple introductions of infectious rodents migrating from
neighbouring areas. We estimated that only 20\% of introductions in a
naive host population results in sustained transmission after 2years,
despite an effective reproduction number well above the epidemic
threshold (mean 4<bold></bold>5, 95\% credible intervals, CI:
0<bold></bold>65-15<bold></bold>8). Following the 2010 outbreak, DOBV
has become endemic in the study area, but we predict a constant
probability of about 4<bold></bold>7\% per year that infection dies out,
following large population drops in winter. In the absence of stochastic
fadeout, viral prevalence is predicted to continue its growth to an
oscillating equilibrium around a value of 24\% (95\% CI: 3-57). We
presented an example of invasion dynamics of a zoonotic virus where
stochastic fadeout have played a major role and may induce future
extinction of the endemic infection.
Tags
Agent based model
Epidemiology
Prevalence
disease
Virus
Persistence
Home-range size
Apodemus flavicollis
Dobrava-belgrade virus
Stochastic fadeout
Zoonotic spillover
Bank voles
Hantavirus
Overlap
Sigmodontinae