Simulating earthquake evacuation using human behavior models

Authored by Gian Paolo Cimellaro, Fabrizio Ozzello, Alessio Vallero, Stephen Mahin, Benshun Shao

Date Published: 2017

DOI: 10.1002/eqe.2840

Sponsors: European Research Council (ERC)

Platforms: C++ Repast

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

In classical earthquake risk assessment, the human behavior is actually not taken into account in risk assessment. Agent-based modeling is a simulation technique that has been applied recently in several fields, such as emergency evacuation. The paper is proposing a methodology that includes in agent-based models the human behavior, considering the anxiety effects generated by the crowd and their influence on the evacuation delays. The proposed model is able to take into account the interdependency between the earthquake evacuation process, and the corresponding damage of structural and non-structural components that is expressed in term of fragility curves. The software REPAST HPC has been used to implement the model, and as a case study, the earthquake evacuation by a mall located in Oakland has been used. The human behavior model has been calibrated through a survey using a miscellaneous sample from different countries. The model can be used to test future scenarios and help local authorities in situations where the human behavior plays a key role. Copyright (c) 2017 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.

Tags

Agent Agent-based modeling Segregation Evacuation model resilience systems Damage scenarios Panic model Human behavior model Earthquakes