Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning

Authored by Ross A. Hammond, Joshua M. Epstein, Ramesh Pankajakshan

Date Published: 2011-05-31

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0020139

Sponsors: United States National Institutes of Health (NIH) United States Department of Homeland Security

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

We introduce a novel hybrid of two fields-Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)-as a powerful new technique for urban evacuation planning. CFD is a predominant technique for modeling airborne transport of contaminants, while ABM is a powerful approach for modeling social dynamics in populations of adaptive individuals. The hybrid CFD-ABM method is capable of simulating how large, spatially-distributed populations might respond to a physically realistic contaminant plume. We demonstrate the overall feasibility of CFD-ABM evacuation design, using the case of a hypothetical aerosol release in Los Angeles to explore potential effectiveness of various policy regimes. We conclude by arguing that this new approach can be powerfully applied to arbitrary population centers, offering an unprecedented preparedness and catastrophic event response tool.

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