Criticality and Information Dynamics in Epidemiological Models

Authored by E Yagmur Erten, Joseph T Lizier, Mahendra Piraveenan, Mikhail Prokopenko

Date Published: 2017

DOI: 10.3390/e19050194

Sponsors: Australian Research Council (ARC)

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative Mathematical description

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Understanding epidemic dynamics has always been a challenge. As witnessed from the ongoing Zika or the seasonal Influenza epidemics, we still need to improve our analytical methods to better understand and control epidemics. While the emergence of complex sciences in the turn of the millennium have resulted in their implementation in modelling epidemics, there is still a need for improving our understanding of critical dynamics in epidemics. In this study, using agent-based modelling, we simulate a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic on a homogeneous network. We use transfer entropy and active information storage from information dynamics framework to characterise the critical transition in epidemiological models. Our study shows that both (bias-corrected) transfer entropy and active information storage maximise after the critical threshold (R-0 = 1). This is the first step toward an information dynamics approach to epidemics. Understanding the dynamics around the criticality in epidemiological models can provide us insights about emergent diseases and disease control.

Tags

agent-based simulation Evolution Epidemiology emergence phase transitions Chaos Entropy Infectious-diseases Mathematical-theory Flow Edge Criticality Information dynamics Boolean networks Warning signals