Cultural landscapes and behavioral transformations: An agent-based model for the simulation and discussion of alternative landscape futures in East Lesvos, Greece

Authored by Peter H Verburg, Cecilia Zagaria, Catharina J E Schulp, Thanasis Kizos, Dimitris Gounaridis

Date Published: 2017

DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.03.022

Sponsors: European Union

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: ODD Flow charts

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Agricultural intensification and abandonment have been identified as two of the more prominent and polarizing drivers of landscape change in Europe. These transitions may induce deterioration in landscape functioning and character, particularly in cultural landscapes demonstrative of evolving human-environment dynamics that have sustained environmental benefits through time. Cultural and behavioral motives are important root influences to such landscape transitions, yet efforts to address landscape degradation are often hampered by a failure to account for the heterogeneous decision-making nature of its agents of change and the inherent complexity of socio-ecological systems. Novel techniques are required to further disentangle responses to multi-level drivers and discuss alternative landscape development trajectories. Agent-based models constructed by means of participatory approaches present increasingly applied tools in this context. This study sought to capture and model the future perspectives emerging from presently occurring farming discourses in the region of Gera (Lesvos, Greece), characterized by persistent abandonment of its traditionally managed olive plantations. We constructed an agent-based model iteratively in collaboration with the local farming community and experts in landscape research. Empirical findings informed the model through the construction of a farmer typology, revealhig a heavy reliance of the farming community upon sectorial profitability, prevalent cultural farming motives and emerging landscape initiatives. The model examined the de-coupled role of agricultural profitability and landscapes initiatives in shaping the behavior of land managers, mapping alternative landscape futures over a period of 25 years. Model results illustrate both increased profitability and action by landscape initiatives are required to reverse abandonment trends within the simulated time frame. The hypothesized ability of landscape initiatives to maintain and promote a cultural drive amongst adhering farmers is crucial for securing behavioral transformations towards professionalism. This study confirmed agent-based modelling to be intuitively received by stakeholders who significantly contributed to model structure refinement and the rejection of a status quo scenario. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tags

Design Management Decision-Making Collective Action systems preferences land-cover change Scenarios Abandonment Odd protocol Europe Driving forces Cultural landscapes Landscape change Initiatives