How will predicted land-use change affect waterfowl spring stopover ecology? Inferences from an individual-based model
Authored by William S Beatty, Dylan C Kesler, Elisabeth B Webb, Luke W Naylor, Andrew H Raedeke, Dale D Humburg, John M Coluccy, Gregory J Soulliere
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12788
Sponsors:
No sponsors listed
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
ODD
Model Code URLs:
https://besjournals-onlinelibrary-wiley-com.ezproxy1.lib.asu.edu/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2F1365-2664.12788&file=jpe12788-sup-0002-AppendixS2.pdf
Abstract
1. Habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, overexploitation and climate
change pose familiar and new challenges to conserving natural
populations throughout the world. One approach conservation planners may
use to evaluate the effects of these challenges on wildlife populations
is scenario planning.
2. We developed an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of
future land use and land cover changes on spring-migrating dabbling
ducks in North America. We assessed the effects of three
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios (A1B, A2
and B1) on dabbling duck stopover duration, movement distances and
mortality. We specifically focused on migration stopover duration
because previous research has demonstrated that individuals arriving
earlier on the nesting grounds exhibit increased reproductive fitness.
3. Compared to present conditions, all three scenarios increased
stopover duration and movement distances of agent ducks.
4. Although all three scenarios presented migrating ducks with increased
amounts of wetland habitat, scenarios also contained substantially less
cropland, which decreased overall carrying capacity of the study area.
5. Synthesis and applications. Land-use change may increase waterfowl
spring migration stopover duration in the midcontinent region of North
America due to reduced landscape energetic carrying capacity. Climate
change will alter spatial patterns of crop distributions with corn and
rice production areas shifting to different regions. Thus, conservation
planners will have to address population-level energetic implications of
shifting agricultural food resources and increased uncertainty in yearly
precipitation patterns within the next 50 years.
Tags
Agent-based model
Climate
Climate change
Migration
Land-use change
Conservation
land cover change
Southeastern united-states
Body condition
Mississippi
Anas platyrhynchos
Dabbling duck
Mallard
Migration asynchrony
Stopover area
Stopover duration
Mallards anas-platyrhynchos
Satellite
telemetry
Wetland complexes
Network design