The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden
Authored by Mark DA Rounsevell, Sascha Holzhauer, Calum Brown, Victor Blanco, Gregor Vulturius, Fredrik Lagergren, Mats Lindeskog
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003
Sponsors:
European Union
Platforms:
CRAFTY
Model Documentation:
ODD
Flow charts
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
The uncertain effects of climatic change and changing demands for
ecosystem services on the distribution of forests and their levels of
service provision require assessments of future land-use change,
ecosystem service provision, and how ecosystem service demands may be
met. We present CRAFTY-Sweden, an agent-based, land-use model that
incorporates land owner behaviour and decision-making in modelling
future ecosystem service provision in the Swedish forestry sector.
Future changes were simulated under scenarios of socioeconomic and
climatic change between 2010 and 2100. The simulations indicate that the
influence of climatic change (on land productivities) may be less
important than that of socio-economic change or behavioural differences.
Simulations further demonstrate that the variability in land owner and
societal behaviour has a substantial role in determining the direction
and impact of land-use change. The results indicate a sizeable increase
in timber harvesting in coming decades, which together with a
substantial decoupling between supply and demand for forest ecosystem
services highlights the challenge of continuously meeting demands for
ecosystem services over long periods of time. There is a clear need for
model applications of this kind to better understand the variation in
ecosystem service provision in the forestry sector, and other associated
land-use changes.
Tags
Agent-based modelling
Adaptation
Management
Dynamics
vulnerability
Productivity
Biodiversity
Scenario analysis
systems
Model
behaviour
Strategies
Framework
Ecosystem services supply and demand
Forestry sector