Assessing the impacts of the changes in farming systems on food security and environmental sustainability of a Chinese rural region under different policy scenarios: an agent-based model
Authored by Chengcheng Yuan, Liming Liu, Xiaoxing Qi, Yonghu Fu, Jinwei Ye
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1007/s10661-017-6019-y
Sponsors:
Chinese National Natural Science Foundation
Platforms:
NetLogo
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
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Model Code URLs:
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Abstract
Since China has undergone a series of economic reforms and implemented
opening up policies, its farming systems have significantly changed and
have dramatically influenced the society, economy, and environment of
China. To assess the comprehensive impacts of these changes on food
security and environmental sustainability, and establish effective and
environment-friendly subsidy policies, this research constructed an
agent-based model (ABM). Daligang Town, which is located in the
two-season rice region of Southern China, was selected as the case study
site. Four different policy scenarios, i.e., ``sharply increasing{''}
(SI), ``no-increase{''} (NI), ``adjusted-method{''} (AM), and
``trend{''} (TD) scenarios were investigated from 2015 to 2029. The
validation result shows that the relative prediction errors between the
simulated and actual values annually ranged from -20 to 20\%, indicating
the reliability of the proposed model. The scenario analysis revealed
that the four scenarios generated different variations in cropping
systems, rice yield, and fertilizer and pesticide inputs when the
purchase price of rice and the non-agricultural income were assumed to
increase annually by 0.1 RMB per kg and 10\% per person, respectively.
Among the four different policy scenarios in Daligang, the TD scenario
was considered the best, because it had a relatively high rice yield,
fairly minimal use of fertilizers and pesticides, and a lower level of
subsidy. Despite its limitations, ABM could be considered a useful tool
in analyzing, exploring, and discussing the comprehensive effects of the
changes in farming system on food security and environmental
sustainability.
Tags
Adaptation
Integrated assessment
multiagent systems
Dynamics
ABM
Land-use
Risk
Farming systems
Food security
Size
Farmland
Environmental sustainability
Southern china
Rational peasant
Northeast china