Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools
Authored by Christian Urich, Ana Deletic, Roland Lowe, Nina Sto Domingo, Ole Mark, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.009
Sponsors:
Australian Government
Platforms:
No platforms listed
Model Documentation:
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Abstract
We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation
strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This
framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD
with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides
the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation
measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised
water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the
framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9
scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential
combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance
of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and
urban development scenario and the other implementation measures
implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over
one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient
means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property
buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too
costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban
development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in
some cases outweigh the benefits orless efficient adaptation strategies.
The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision
making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk
adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to
variations of climate and urban layout. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All
rights reserved.
Tags
Agent-based modelling
Climate change
Land-use
Urban development
Water management
Model
Urbanization
growth
Climate-change
Flood risk
Quantification
Uncertainties
Hydrodynamic modelling
Robust decision maldng
Extreme precipitation
Annual damage