Does Choice of Influenza Vaccine Type Change Disease Burden and Cost-Effectiveness in the United States? An Agent-Based Modeling Study
Authored by Shawn T Brown, Richard K Zimmerman, Kenneth J Smith, Jonathan M Raviotta, Jay V DePasse, Eunha Shim, Mary Patricia Nowalk
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kww229
Sponsors:
United States National Institutes of Health (NIH)
Platforms:
Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED)
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
Offering a choice of influenza vaccine type may increase vaccine
coverage and reduce disease burden, but it is more costly. This study
calculated the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of 4
strategies: no choice, pediatric choice, adult choice, or choice for
both age groups. Using agent-based modeling, individuals were simulated
as they interacted with others, and influenza was tracked as it spread
through a population in Washington, DC. Influenza vaccination coverage
derived from data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
was increased by 6.5\% (range, 3.25\%-11.25\%), reflecting changes due
to vaccine choice. With moderate influenza infectivity, the number of
cases averaged 1,117,285 for no choice, 1,083,126 for pediatric choice,
1,009,026 for adult choice, and 975,818 for choice for both age groups.
Averted cases increased with increased coverage and were highest for the
choice-for-both-age-groups strategy; adult choice also reduced cases in
children. In cost-effectiveness analysis, choice for both age groups was
dominant when choice increased vaccine coverage by >= 3.25\%. Offering a
choice of influenza vaccines, with reasonable resultant increases in
coverage, decreased influenza cases by > 100,000 with a favorable
cost-effectiveness profile. Clinical trials testing the predictions made
based on these simulation results and deliberation of policies and
procedures to facilitate choice should be considered.
Tags
Simulation
Agent-based modeling
cost-effectiveness
preferences
Influenza
Strategies
Seasonal influenza
Children
Impact
Infants
Influenza vaccine
Vaccine choice
Immunization rates
Attributes