Technology foresight for medical device development through hybrid simulation: The ProHTA Project
Authored by Peter L Kolominsky-Rabas, Anatoli Djanatliev, Philip Wahlster, Marion Gantner-Baer, Bernd Hofmann, Reinhard German, Martin Sedlmayr, Erich Reinhardt, Juergen Schuettler, Christine Kriza, Project Grp ProHTA
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.005
Sponsors:
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
Platforms:
AnyLogic
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
Flow charts
Model Code URLs:
Model code not found
Abstract
``Prospective Health Technology Assessment{''} (ProHTA) aims to develop
a platform targeting health care manufacturers and decision makers that
facilitates the assessment of innovative health technologies prior to
their launch. The simulation has been run for the first case study of
Mobile Stroke Units (MSUs). In the highly time sensitive setting of
acute stroke, MSUs are an innovative approach as they aim to reduce
`time-to-thrombolysis'.
The ProHTA approach focuses on interdisciplinary work related to
forecasting with hybrid simulation consisting of system dynamics models
for macro-simulation and agent-based models for micro-simulation.
Results of the simulation show that MSUs save up to 49 min of time
between ambulance call and therapy decision. Whereas without MSUs, only
0.2\% of patients fall in the group with the most favourable time
interval between 0 and 90 min, up to 16.6\% of patients treated in MSUs
fall into this group of early onset times to thrombolysis. As a flexible
and primarily quantitative decision-making tool for foresight, ProHTA
adds value to existing methodologies for pre-assessing health technology
at a very early stage of technology research and development. With its
emphasis on strategic planning, ProHTA helps to improve the efficiency
of health care delivery in different settings using hybrid simulation
techniques. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Tags
models
Policy
cost-effectiveness
information
disease
Germany
Systematic analysis
Ischemic-stroke
Global burden
Care