Beyond big fish: The case for more detailed representations of top predators in marine ecosystem models
Authored by Merel Goedegebuure, Jessica Melbourne-Thomas, Stuart P Corney, Mark A Hindell, Andrew J Constable
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.04.004
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Abstract
Seabirds and marine mammals are generally not well represented in marine
ecosystem models, despite the important roles that these groups play in
determining ecosystem dynamics. This is an important gap in model
development, particularly for end-to-end ecosystem models, which are
becoming increasingly important tools for fisheries and ecosystem based
management and assessment. Examination of large-scale and widely-applied
pelagic end-to-end ecosystem models indicates that representations of
predators are currently best developed for fish groups. The methods for
modelling seabirds and marine mammals on the other hand, are less well
developed. This is potentially due to the challenges involved in data
collection and in representing the complex life histories of many of
these species. To examine the effect that different representations of
higher trophic level predators might have on ecosystem model
predictions, we developed a set of simple nested qualitative network
models and examined their responses to perturbations. Responses differed
between models across a range of trophic levels under a simple scenario
for environmental change, highlighting that how predators are modelled
can have implications for ecosystem-level predictions. We conclude with
a discussion around potential approaches for developing more detailed
representations of predator groups, and suggest incorporating dynamic
energy budget theory in individual-based models to represent higher
trophic level predators with more complex life histories. (C) 2017
Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Tags
Individual-based model
individual-based models
Climate-change
Sensitivity-analysis
Top predators
Community structure
Parameter-estimation
Energy budget theory
Food-web model
California current
Marine ecosystem modelling
End-to-end ecosystem models
Dynamic energy budget theory
Skipjack tuna dynamics
Ocean ecosystems