A method for evaluating cognitively informed micro-targeted campaign strategies: An agent-based model proof of principle

Authored by Jens Koed Madsen, Toby D Pilditch

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0193909

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: NetLogo

Model Documentation: ODD Flow charts

Model Code URLs: https://osf.io/ce6qf/

Abstract

In political campaigns, perceived candidate credibility influences the persuasiveness of messages. In campaigns aiming to influence people's beliefs, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) that target specific voters using their psychological profile have become increasingly prevalent. It remains open how effective MTCs are, notably in comparison to population-targeted campaign strategies. Using an agent-based model, the paper applies recent insights from cognitive models of persuasion, extending them to the societal level in a novel framework for exploring political campaigning. The paper provides an initial treatment of the complex dynamics of population level political campaigning in a psychologically informed manner. Model simulations show that MTCs can take advantage of the psychology of the electorate by targeting voters favourable disposed towards the candidate. Relative to broad campaigning, MTCs allow for efficient and adaptive management of complex campaigns. Findings show that disliked MTC candidates can beat liked population-targeting candidates, pointing to societal questions concerning campaign regulations.

Tags

Dynamics networks Competence Persuasion Media Source credibility Warmth