Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China

Authored by Tian-Mu Chen, Shao-Sen Zhang, Jun Feng, Zhi-Gui Xia, Chun-Hai Luo, Xu-Can Zeng, Xiang-Rui Guo, Zu-Rui Lin, Hong-Ning Zhou, Shui-Sen Zhou

Date Published: 2018

DOI: 10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6

Sponsors: No sponsors listed

Platforms: Microsoft Excel

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

Background: The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. Methods: A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation. Results: Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range: 0-5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range: 0.000-0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56\% (range: 28.38-71.95\%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (chi(2) = 0.487, P = 0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range: 0.0048-0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village. Conclusions: A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China.

Tags

vulnerability Malaria Elimination Risk Changsha disease Outbreaks Pandemic influenza Program Virus Transmissibility Individual-based model Importation Mobile population