A transitions model for sustainable mobility

Authored by Noam Bergman, Alex Haxeltine, Lorraine Whitmarsh, Jonathan Koehler, Michel Schilperoord, Bjorn Nykvist

Date Published: 2009-10-15

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.06.027

Sponsors: European Union

Platforms: No platforms listed

Model Documentation: Other Narrative

Model Code URLs: Model code not found

Abstract

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 1030 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tags

Agent-based model Transition theory sustainable mobility