Effect of individual protective behaviors on influenza transmission: an agent-based model
Authored by Elnaz Karimi, Ketra Schmitt, Ali Akgunduz
Date Published: 2015
DOI: 10.1007/s10729-014-9310-2
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Platforms:
Arena
Model Documentation:
Other Narrative
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Abstract
It is well established in the epidemiological literature that individual
behaviors have a significant effect on the spread of infectious
diseases. Agent-based models are increasingly being recognized as the
next generation of epidemiological models. In this research, we use the
ability of agent-based models to incorporate behavior into simulations
by examining the relative importance of vaccination and social
distancing, two common measures for controlling the spread of infectious
diseases, with respect to seasonal influenza. We modeled health
behaviour using the result of a Health Belief Model study focused on
influenza. We considered a control and a treatment group to explore the
effect of education on people's health-related behaviors patterns. The
control group reflects the behavioral patterns of students based on
their general knowledge of influenza and its interventions while the
treatment group illustrates the level of behavioral changes after
individuals have been educated by a health care expert. The results of
this study indicate that self-initiated behaviors are successful in
controlling an outbreak in a high contact rate location such as a
university. Self-initiated behaviors resulted in a population attack
rate decrease of 17 \% and a 25 \% reduction in the peak number of
cases. The simulation also provides significant evidence for the effect
of an HBM theory-based educational program to increase the rate of
applying the target interventions (vaccination by 22 \% percent and
social distancing by 41 \%) and consequently to control the outbreak.
Tags
Simulation
Vaccination
Pandemic influenza
Strategies
Seasonal influenza
United-states
Interventions
Diseases
School closure
Mitigate