A Conceptual Design of Spatio-Temporal Agent-Based Model for Volcanic Evacuation
Authored by Jumadi, Steve J Carver
Date Published: 2017
DOI: 10.3390/systems5040053
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Platforms:
AnyLogic
Model Documentation:
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Abstract
The understanding of evacuation processes is important for improving the
effectiveness of evacuation plans in the event of volcanic disasters. In
terms of social processes, the enactment of evacuations in volcanic
crises depends on the variability of individual/household responses.
This variability of population response is related to the uncertainty
and unpredictability of the hazard characteristics of
volcanoes-specifically, the exact moment at which the eruption occurs
(temporal), the magnitude of the eruption and which locations are
impacted (spatial). In order to provide enhanced evacuation planning, it
is important to recognise the potential problems that emerge during
evacuation processes due to such variability. Evacuation simulations are
one approach to understanding these processes. However, experimenting
with volcanic evacuations in the real world is risky and challenging,
and so an agent-based model is proposed to simulate volcanic evacuation.
This paper highlights the literature gap for this topic and provides the
conceptual design for a simulation using an agent-based model. As an
implementation, an initial evacuation model is presented for Mount
Merapi in Indonesia, together with potential applications of the model
for supporting volcanic evacuation management, discussion of the initial
outcomes and suggestions for future work.
Tags
Agent-based model
Evacuation model
Hurricane evacuation
Cellular-automata
Risk perception
Rain-triggered lahars
Central java
Emergency
evacuation
Mount merapi
Merapi-volcano
Hazard assessment
Pyroclastic-flow
2010 eruption
Nuees ardentes